Storm Prediction Center Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jun 21, 2024 (2024)

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
-Critical Area-40%(blue)
-Marginal Area-10%(brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
-Critical Area-70%(red)
-Marginal Area-40%(orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
-Critical Area-40%(blue)
-Marginal Area-10%(brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
-Critical Area-70%(red)
-Marginal Area-40%(orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
-Critical Area-40%(blue)
-Marginal Area-10%(brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
-Critical Area-70%(red)
-Marginal Area-40%(orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
-Critical Area-40%(blue)
-Marginal Area-10%(brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
-Critical Area-70%(red)
-Marginal Area-40%(orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
-Critical Area-40%(blue)
-Marginal Area-10%(brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
-Critical Area-70%(red)
-Marginal Area-40%(orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
-Critical Area-40%(blue)
-Marginal Area-10%(brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
-Critical Area-70%(red)
-Marginal Area-40%(orange)

 ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 212127 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0427 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Increasing mid-level southwesterlies will accompany a north Pacific shortwave trough late this weekend from WA southward across ID. Until then, hot and dry conditions under a mid to upper-level ridge will continue to result in curing/drying of fuels from portions of the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and Southwest. Increasing westerly and southwesterly surface winds will develop ahead of and behind a dry cold front moving through WA and OR D3/Sunday. Low critical probabilities have been extended southward to include south-central OR and northwestern NV, where widespread RH of less than 15 percent will combine with 15-20 mph sustained wind speeds. Similar wind speeds, and slightly higher RH, are still anticipated across the Columbia Basin. Critical meteorological conditions appear likely across the Upper Snake Plain of ID D3. However, confidence in the introduction of higher critical probabilities within this region is low considering less receptive fuels. Very similar conditions will follow D4/Monday over the same area. Surface wind speeds will decrease across the Pacific Northwest, the majority of the Great Basin, and Southwest D5/Tuesday, as the mid to upper-level ridge amplifies again over the western CONUS. This decrease will be less noticeable across the Upper Snake Plain, but limited spatial extent of critical speeds does not warrant the introduction of low probabilities at this time. A return to at least locally elevated conditions will be possible D6-D8 across the Great Basin, and perhaps Pacific Northwest, as another upper-level trough and strengthening mid-level flow traverse the northwestern CONUS. Low critical probabilities may need to be introduced in future forecasts within these regions as details regarding more precise wind and RH thresholds emerge. ..Barnes.. 06/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT