Storm Prediction Center Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jun 23, 2024 (2024)

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
-Critical Area-40%(blue)
-Marginal Area-10%(brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
-Critical Area-70%(red)
-Marginal Area-40%(orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
-Critical Area-40%(blue)
-Marginal Area-10%(brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
-Critical Area-70%(red)
-Marginal Area-40%(orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
-Critical Area-40%(blue)
-Marginal Area-10%(brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
-Critical Area-70%(red)
-Marginal Area-40%(orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
-Critical Area-40%(blue)
-Marginal Area-10%(brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
-Critical Area-70%(red)
-Marginal Area-40%(orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
-Critical Area-40%(blue)
-Marginal Area-10%(brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
-Critical Area-70%(red)
-Marginal Area-40%(orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
-Critical Area-40%(blue)
-Marginal Area-10%(brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
-Critical Area-70%(red)
-Marginal Area-40%(orange)

 ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 232039 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain confined to the Great Basin for much of the upcoming work week and into early next weekend. Afternoon water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave over the northern Pacific, which is expected to migrate into the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D4/Wed to D5/Thursday period. Long-range ensemble and deterministic solutions appear to have come into better agreement regarding the amplitude and evolution of this wave, and suggest that the mid-week fire regime may yield wind/RH values similar to today's (Sunday's) fire weather conditions across the northern Great Basin. Consequently, confidence in the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions has sufficiently increased to warrant risk probabilities for both D4/Wed and D5/Thu. Ensemble guidance also suggests the probability for wetting rainfall through the middle of the work week will be very limited along the West Coast into the western and northern Great Basin, which should maintain adequately dry fuels and support the fire weather concern. Confidence in the fire threat further north into the Pacific Northwest is more limited due to increasing rain chances based on ensemble QPF probabilities, but trends will be monitored considering recent fire activity along and east of the Cascades. The persistence of an upper-ridge over the south-central CONUS through the end of the work week will maintain a mean westerly flow regime across the northern U.S. Deterministic solutions and cluster analyses hint that another mid-level wave will approach the Pacific Northwest region by D7/Sat into D8/Sun, which may support dry/windy conditions east of the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada. However, confidence in the fire weather threat is fairly limited at this range. ..Moore.. 06/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT